Three Seats

Three by-elections, three Liberal victories, and Mark Carney now governs with a majority he never took to the voters. The arithmetic has shifted. So has the ground.

This week on Craft Politics, Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy break down what the Liberal sweep in University–Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest, and Terrebonne means for committee control, legislative pace, and whether the Conservatives' by-election collapse is the canary everyone's ignoring.

We discuss:

Terrebonne's 700-vote margin. The Liberals didn't just hold the seat they won by one vote a year ago — they grew their support in a riding the Bloc challenged all the way to the Supreme Court. Turnout nearly matched the general election. Both sides were motivated.

What a majority actually does. It's not just the seat count. Committees now have Liberal majorities. That means control over witnesses, inquiries, and the legislative agenda. WE Charity, ArriveCan, foreign interference — all of that came through committee work during minority years. That lever now belongs to the government.

The Conservative drop that should worry them. Down 11 points in University–Rosedale, 12 in Scarborough Southwest, 15 in Terrebonne. Eric Grenier's data shows these are the three largest Conservative by-election losses of the last decade. By-election trends have historically predicted the next general election. If the Tories are truly only a few points behind in the polls, they shouldn't be losing double digits in safe Liberal seats.

UK elections preview: May 7th realignment. Labour is projected to be trounced across England, Scotland, and Wales. Reform UK could win the highest national vote share and gain over 2,000 council seats. The Conservatives are polling at 18% and could lose another 1,000 seats. The SNP might win a majority in Scotland despite years of poor governance. Plaid Cymru could become the largest party in Wales. We're watching a four- or five-party system emerge, and it's breaking first-past-the-post.

Quebec's quiet realignment. The Parti Québécois led polls for two years. Now the Quebec Liberals are gaining ground as the PQ's referendum commitment becomes a ceiling, not a floor. No Quebecer under 48 has voted in a sovereignty referendum. Support for separation sits at 26%. And the CAQ, which governed as a nationalist consolidation party, is polling in the single digits. October's election could reshape the province.

Also discussed: whether Carney governs like he earned a new mandate, why angry young men might have drifted away from Poilievre, the Hungary election surprise, and why Scottish nationalism gets a progressive pass that Brexit voters never did.

00:00 Welcome and Carney's three by-election sweep
00:24 Terrebonne's tight race and Liberal growth
01:28 What a majority means at the committee level
03:13 Historic majority through floor crossings and by-elections
04:44 Committee power and the WE charity precedent
06:30 Does Carney govern like he earned a new mandate?
09:17 The Conservative collapse - Eric Grenier's warning signs
11:43 The angry young men problem - Where did Conservative voters go?
14:15 The Carney-Starmer contrast - Why Canada and UK are diverging
16:22 Hungary's surprise - Orban loses and the populist wave question
19:40 UK elections preview - May 7th realignment incoming
20:14 Labour's shellacking and the four-party chaos
21:54 Scotland's SNP majority threat and the referendum question
23:33 Reform's 2,000 seat surge and the Conservative floor
26:42 Does first past the post still work in five-party Britain?
28:02 Kemi Badenoch is safe - Starmer is not
29:35 Quebec's realignment - PQ momentum stalls as Liberals surge
31:32 The referendum no one wants - Why sovereignty is limiting the PQ
32:34 Scotland versus Quebec - Why independence plays differently
33:47 The generational divide and progressive nationalism
36:33 CAQ collapse and the parked vote theory
37:53 October showdown - Montreal versus the regions
38:44 Wrap and upcoming guests