At the bar

Six weeks ago Ginny Roth told us there’s a magic button in Canadian politics: press “Trump” and watch your numbers move. Carney pressed it. Doug Ford pressed it. Then Quebec shrugged, and B.C. seems to be shrugging too. So we opened a beer to work out what changed, among other things.

No guest this week. This is the first “At the Bar”: the two of us catching up on six interviews and one B.C. IPA, after a listener (hi, Barrett) said he missed the beer reviews.

What we got into:

• The last one percent. Graham Lanktree’s point that a Canada–UK deal only touches what CPTPP left behind caught Joseph flat-footed. Andrew on where the real barriers are, and why a British teacher can work in Auckland but not in Surrey.
• Is Reform Thatcher’s party? Darren Grimes said no. Andrew agrees, and thinks the one making the Thatcherite pitch in Britain right now is Kemi Badenoch.
• “Win back the right.” Ginny’s advice to the Tories gave Andrew a visible reaction on air. Now he explains it: five seats lost to Reform, dozens to the Lib Dems, and you can’t out-Reform Reform. There’s a can of Coke in the argument.
• The Trump button, provincially. One in 10 B.C. voters put tariffs at the top of their list. Andrew’s read from the doors: voters can smell an election called for party advantage. “It’s just not cricket.”
• Alberta votes Monday. Why a 25 percent separation vote is a bigger problem for Danielle Smith than for Ottawa, and what Brexit and Scotland say about movements that lose and don’t go home.

Also discussed: why Darren’s council in Durham has shed councillors since he was on, Andrew’s unfinished kitchen, Joseph’s 20th wedding anniversary (china, apparently), $30 French butter from a Surrey strip mall, the beer club’s feelings about Margaret Thatcher, Andy Burnham’s Brexit habit, a curry-leaf beer that failed twice, and four days of someone else’s curry delivery.

Predictions: we both say the B.C. Conservatives pull it off on Oct. 24.

The beer: Coast Mountain Brewing’s Hopganjola, 6.7 percent. Andrew lands it between 3.75 and 4 on Untappd. Citrus, tropical, slightly dank, and faintly of curry.

Next week: the Alberta referendum, with a returning guest.

00:00 Welcome and the beer — At the bar format explained
01:54 Summer recap — Croatia, kayaking, and kitchen disasters
05:34 Reflections on recent interviews — Quebec, Reform, and trade deals
12:12 Is Reform Margaret Thatcher's party? — Economic versus cultural conservatism
14:46 Ginny Roth's advice for Kemi — Win back the right or the centre?
19:42 The polarization myth — Why first-past-the-post forces coalition building
27:56 Andy Burnham's early days — Charming but contradictory
31:02 The magic button is broken — Trump tariffs fail in BC and Quebec
34:36 BC election deep dive — Why voters aren't buying the Trump pitch
38:05 Alberta separation fallout — The emotional reckoning ahead
46:20 Vancouver plebiscite and predictions — Beer tasting notes