The NDP

The NDP is polling between 6 and 12 percent. Projections show them dropping from 25 seats to possibly eight. And yet Cheryl Oates, who ran communications for Alberta Premier Rachel Notley, thinks they'll outperform the polls.

This week on Craft Politics: Cheryl Oates joins Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy to answer what's happening to the NDP, whether the party can hold its incumbents, and what it would take to turn things around.

What we got into:

• The Carney vacuum. It's not that diehard New Democrats have abandoned the party. It's that their desire to stop Pierre Poilievre is now bigger than their party loyalty, and Mark Carney gave them somewhere credible to go.
• Why the NDP will outperform. History says they do. And this time they're spending their entire $30 million cap on incumbent seats, not spreading it thin across the country. That won't show up in national polls.
• The sweet spot question. Is there a polling threshold where progressive voters feel safe enough to come home? Cheryl's answer: if Carney's sitting at 200 seats, the strategic voting pressure evaporates.
• Alberta's not what you think. Calgary was 50/50 in the last provincial election. Edmonton's a sweep for the NDP provincially. And federally, every seat in Edmonton is now in play, plus four in Calgary. If Lethbridge goes competitive, that's the canary.
• The debate as content creation. Jagmeet Singh has the most to gain. This is his best shot to make the case that you need New Democrats in Parliament to hold the next government accountable, no matter who wins.
• The separation conversation. Cheryl wishes she could dismiss Preston Manning's piece, but she can't. It's a real sentiment in Alberta, and it needs to be taken seriously, even if it doesn't speak for the majority.

Also discussed: why provincial NDP success doesn't translate federally, the Trans Mountain frustration, Pierre Poilievre's Tout le monde en parle appearance versus Carney's, badge gate as the most Canadian scandal ever, and Joseph's Calabogie Bogey tasting notes that Andrew found insufferable.

Find Cheryl Oates on the Discourse podcast and at McGill's Max Bell School of Public Policy.

00:00 Welcome and Ottawa hotel room misery
04:10 Badge Gate — Liberal staffers' dirty tricks scandal
10:02 Pierre Poilievre's breakthrough media moments
16:37 Can the debates actually matter this time?
19:36 UK Steel crisis and Chinese ownership questions
24:17 Trump cuts NATO funding — Is the alliance dead?
28:40 Introducing Cheryl Oates — Inside the NDP collapse
30:25 Why NDP voters are fleeing to Carney
31:31 The NDP's survival strategy — Hold the incumbents
36:34 Provincial versus federal NDP — Why BC is 45 percent and federal is 12 percent
41:50 The right question for NDP voters — Do you need us in Parliament?
46:28 Alberta in play — Edmonton and Calgary seats to watch
50:17 Preston Manning and Alberta separation — Should we take it seriously?
54:20 The debates — Jagmeet's best chance and Poilievre's risk
57:55 Tasting notes — Calabogie Brewing Bogie West Coast IPA