Everyone Knows How This Ends

Holly's out this week. Andrew claims she's started a rival podcast called "Raft Politics." We soldier on anyway.

What We Covered:

• UK: Starmer's crumbling premiership. The Mandelson crisis has triggered a cascade — chief of staff gone, comms director gone, cabinet secretary potentially next.
• Scottish Labour's leader publicly called for Starmer to resign. The leadership contest seems to be happening already; Starmer just hasn't recognized he's toast. Andrew's take from the halls of Westminster: Labour MPs are depressed. Turns out governing is hard.
• Canada: Poilievre's leadership math problem. He secured 87.4% at the leadership review — no surprise. But his personal approval keeps dropping while party polling stays stable. Six in ten Canadians say they're satisfied with Carney. The question now: can Poilievre close that gap before Carney calls an election?
• Chart of the week: Polymarket on election timing. 44% chance of a Canadian election by June 30th — and trending up. We debate whether the Liberals should go early while the numbers look good, or whether snap elections have a way of backfiring spectacularly. (See: UK 2017.)

00:00 Welcome and UK political chaos — Starmer fights for survival
00:46 The Mandelson appointment disaster — How it all began
01:57 Cascading resignations — Morgan McSweeney and the comms director step down
02:58 The deeper rot — Why Starmer was vulnerable in the first place
06:02 The briefing war begins — Leadership contest already underway
06:37 Everyone knows how this ends — But when?
08:48 Can staffers take the fall? The accountability question
12:52 Five Prime Ministers and counting — UK's competency crisis
14:43 Pierre Poilievre's 87 percent — Strong with the base, weak with the public
16:09 The Number — Six in 10 Canadians satisfied with Mark Carney
19:34 Can Poilievre soften without losing the base?
21:19 The Trump shield — How long can Carney ride the rally-around effect?
22:33 Chart of the week — Polymarket predicts a spring election
24:32 The snap election temptation — Strike now or wait and risk it all?
26:55 The 2017 UK lesson — When 20-point leads evaporate
31:37 World events turn on a dime — Why there are no safe bets