Canada's NDP

The NDP is falling off a cliff, the Liberals are hoovering up their vote, and Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives are stuck between 36 and 40 percent with nowhere left to grow. Two weeks into Canada's federal election, the race that looked like a Conservative landslide now looks like a two-horse fight with Mark Carney closing fast.

This week on Craft Politics: James Moore, former Conservative Cabinet Minister and MP for Port Moody–Coquitlam from 2000 to 2015, joins Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy to answer whether the Conservatives can regain momentum, or whether Trump and Carney have already rewritten the ballot question.

We discuss:

The two-horse race. The NDP collapse freed up votes the Liberals didn't have to work for, and Mark Carney hoovered them all up without tilting left. Now he's running a campaign that looks more like Stephen Harper than Justin Trudeau.

Trump as the Conservative Achilles heel. Pierre Poilievre spent two years making the ballot question about the economy and the need for change. Then Trump threatened tariffs, and the threat to the economy stopped being the Liberals and became Donald Trump.

The validator problem. Stephen Harper brought in John Baird, Jim Flaherty, and Tony Clement to signal the Conservatives were serious. Carney's got Andrew Weaver and Gregor Robertson. The Conservatives haven't done the same, and it's costing them credibility with swing voters.

Week one versus week five. Carney had a fine first week, but he's a rookie. James thinks the pressure cooker of a five-week campaign, the debates, the exhaustion, and the scrutiny could expose him by week three or four.

The first 100 days. Whoever wins will be drinking from a fire hose. James expects Parliament back within two weeks, a throne speech fast, and a budget faster. But Pierre's change budget might have to wait if he's managing a trade war first.

Carney's coalition problem. He's brought in preservationist Greens, pipeline opponents in Quebec, and libertarian Red Tories. James compares it to Paul Martin's 2004 caucus, when Keith Martin, Ujjal Dosanjh, and Scott Brison couldn't agree on anything. Carney might win big, but governing that coalition could be a disaster.

Also discussed: why James has been a never-Trumper since day one, the riding to watch on election night, and why he thinks Canadians will deliver a clear majority to someone, not another minority.

00:00 Welcome and remembering Hugh — A Welsh Red Ale toast
05:18 The incredible Liberal surge — Carney's 20-point turnaround
05:52 Trump's phone call with Carney — Respect or weakness?
08:01 Conservative campaign under fire — Armchair generals and strategy debates
10:58 UK and US political updates — Florida special election and Labour's anti-woke turn
21:02 Introducing James Moore — Former Cabinet Minister and BC's youngest MP
24:08 The NDP is falling off a cliff — How Carney hoovered up the left
28:25 The two-horse race — Why this feels different from past elections
37:08 The Trump trap — How MAGA rhetoric has haunted Canadian Conservatives
41:34 The ballot question has flipped — From Trudeau's economy to Trump's threat
43:05 Can Poilievre sell change when change just happened?
45:08 The stamina test — Week one versus week five on the campaign trail
47:05 First 100 days — What a Poilievre or Carney government would look like
49:48 Carney's coalition problem — Being all things to all people
53:00 Election night prediction — No subtle brushstrokes this time