Quebec Deep Dive
with Kevin Paquette
Quebec represents 23% of Canada’s population and 20% of GDP. If it separated — which is back on the table for the first time in a generation — it would be like the UK losing Scotland, except with a larger economy.
The last referendum in 1995? The “no” side won by 54,288 votes. Half a percent. Thirty years later, the separatist Parti Québécois is leading the polls with a commitment to hold another referendum by 2030.
We brought in Kevin Paquette, a colleague at Crestview who was president of the CAQ youth wing during the party’s rise, to make sense of what’s actually happening.
What We Covered
The collapse of the third way. François Legault’s CAQ offered Quebec nationalists a deal: protect the French language, get more autonomy, skip the referendum drama. The party went from 90 seats in 2022 to polling at near-extinction today.
Support for the PQ doesn’t mean support for sovereignty. Roughly 30% of current PQ voters would vote no in a referendum. People are parking votes with the PQ because they’re fed up with everyone else.
The Montreal-regions divide. Elections aren’t won in Montreal. They’re won in the francophone regions where people feel increasingly disconnected from a metropolitan core that doesn’t share their lived experience.
The Supreme Court wildcard. The upcoming decision on Bill 21 and the notwithstanding clause could hand the PQ a narrative that writes itself: we tried to make Canada work, and Canada said no.
Key Insight
Kevin’s prediction: minority government, regardless of who wins. Both the CAQ and Liberals are picking new leaders months before the October 2026 election while the separatists cruise in the polls. A third referendum loss would end Quebec’s leverage game with Ottawa permanently — which means nationalists may not actually want a referendum they might lose.
Guest
Kevin Paquette — public affairs consultant at Crestview Strategy, former CAQ youth wing president (2017–2019), and sharp observer of Quebec’s regional-urban divide.