Big Daddy Carns
And the rupture that won't stop rupturing
Episode Summary
This week, we dissect Prime Minister Mark Carney’s headline-grabbing Davos speech, Trump’s inflammatory comments about NATO allies in Afghanistan, the Labour Party’s decision to block Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election, and the continuing exodus of Conservative MPs to Reform UK.
Plus: a deep dive into Trump’s collapsing poll numbers across key demographics.
The post-war order is dead. We knew that already. But last week, someone important finally said it out loud — and the reaction tells us more than the speech itself.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s address at Davos has been called a doctrine. It’s been called a warning shot. It’s been called the moment Canada found its spine. And while I’m a sucker for all of that framing (as a former speechwriter, I can’t help myself), I think the real story is simpler: Carney told a room full of elites what they already knew but had been too polite to admit. The operating system the West has relied on since 1945 doesn’t work anymore. Pretending otherwise has become risky, if not naive.
“We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.”
That’s the line. Transitions imply continuity. Ruptures don’t.
The speech and its audience
Holly raised a fair question on this week’s episode: who was the speech actually for? The CEOs in the room? Donald Trump? Voters back home?
My read: it was for all three, but primarily domestic. Carney won the Liberal leadership by positioning himself as the only candidate capable of handling Trump. Davos gave him the global stage to prove it — right before Trump took the same stage with a rambling, unfocused address that confused Iceland and Greenland.
The contrast was deliberate. And it worked.
The Liberals have seen a bump in the polls since. Too early to attribute it directly to Davos, but the timing is notable. Trump looms large over the Canadian psyche right now, and every time he does something erratic, it helps the party that positioned itself as the adult in the room.
But there’s a second audience worth considering: middle powers everywhere. Carney appears to want Canada to be seen as the leading voice among countries that aren’t superpowers but still hold significant regional influence. “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu” was the other memorable line. It’s not subtle. It’s a pitch for coalition-building among countries that suddenly find themselves without a reliable big brother.
The ego and the backlash
Trump’s reaction was predictable. He threatened 100% tariffs on Canada, then walked it back when he realized he didn’t understand what Carney had actually signed with China. The whole cycle — outrage, threat, retreat — took about 48 hours.
This is the pattern now. Andrew made the point on the show that we’re trying to rationalize something irrational. Disorder reigns. Maybe we should stop looking for coherence where there isn’t any.
I’m not sure I agree entirely. Patterns are emerging, even if they’re patterns of chaos. We know that anything perceived as a personal affront triggers a tantrum. We know the tantrum usually burns out within days. We know Trump cares deeply about what the British Royal Family thinks of him (weird, but documented). And we know that when his base pushes back — as they did in Minneapolis this weekend — he’s capable of reversing course.
That last one is new. And it might matter.
The Afghanistan insult
Speaking of tantrums: Trump claimed last week that NATO allies “stayed a little back, a little off the front lines” in Afghanistan.
I grew up as a military brat. I have friends and family who served. So this one landed differently for me.
The numbers: 2,461 American souls lost. 457 British. 158 Canadian. Then France, Germany, Denmark, and others. NATO was there. Side by side. Dying alongside American troops in a war invoked under Article 5 — the only time that collective defence clause has ever been used.
And it was used by the United States.
For all the rhetoric about NATO serving European interests at American expense, the historical record shows the opposite. When America called, its allies answered. Many of them came home in coffins.
Trump has since walked the comments back, reportedly after the King got involved. But the damage is done. In the UK, the response was overwhelming and bipartisan — Holly noted that almost everyone who spoke publicly was sensible and clear. In Canada, veterans’ groups were furious. Even some American veterans pushed back.
Andrew made a broader point worth sitting with: there’s something in the American psyche that sometimes erases allied contributions from the historical record. Watch any Hollywood WWII film — it’s often told as if no one else was there. That’s not malice. It’s just the water Americans swim in. But it creates real friction when a president says the quiet part out loud.
The Labour Party’s gift to Reform
Meanwhile, in the UK, the Labour Party continues to find creative ways to hurt itself.
Andy Burnham — Mayor of Greater Manchester, former MP, former minister, perennial leadership hopeful — wanted to stand in a by-election for a safe Labour seat. The NEC said no, citing the cost of a mayoral by-election that would follow. Convenient.
The reality is that Keir Starmer doesn’t want a rival on his back benches. Burnham has been openly positioning himself as an alternative, and Labour MPs reportedly like him. Blocking him is a short-term fix with long-term costs.
Here’s the problem: Labour may now lose that seat to Reform anyway. It’s Greater Manchester — a Labour bastion for generations — but the demographics make it a target. Burnham probably would have held it. Now we’ll never know, and the narrative will write itself regardless.
This is a government with a 170-seat majority, less than two years in, and it cannot stop fighting itself. It’s a continuation of what we saw under the Conservatives. The cycle of self-destruction just changed jerseys.
The Conservative exodus
Speaking of the Conservatives: Suella Braverman defected to Reform this week, following Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell. Three MPs in seven days. For a party that doesn’t have many MPs left, that’s significant.
Holly noted that Braverman’s speech was polished — far more so than Jenrick’s rushed announcement. Reform is getting better at this. The production value, the staging, the messaging. They’re professionalizing quickly.
The deeper problem for the Conservatives is that they keep losing people from the right. At some point, there is no right left. And that sends a signal to right-leaning voters that the party has given up on them. Meanwhile, they’re also bleeding to the Liberal Democrats on the other flank.
Getting squeezed from both sides with a diminished caucus is not a recoverable position. At least not easily.
Trump’s polling collapse
I pulled up a chart on the show that’s been making the rounds. It tracks Trump’s support across key demographics from 2020 to 2024 to today.
The trajectory is a U-turn. Among non-white voters: collapse. Among 18-29 year-olds: collapse. These were the groups that swung toward him in 2024. Now they’re swinging back — hard.
The data is pre-Minneapolis. It doesn’t capture whatever effect the weekend’s images might have had: peaceful protesters, ICE agents, a shooting. We’ll see if that accelerates the trend or gets absorbed into the noise.
But here’s what I’m watching: Trump’s retreat in Minneapolis may be the first time he’s recognized that his base moved away from him on an issue. That’s different. He’s usually immune to feedback. If he’s suddenly responsive to it, something has shifted.
The question is what happens next. If his numbers keep sliding, how do the people around him react? Does JD Vance start creating distance? Does Marco Rubio? Do the heirs to the MAGA movement realize they need to protect themselves from the man who built it?
And if Trump feels abandoned, what does that look like?
Word of the week: Big Daddy Carns
This one comes from Kyla Ronellenfitsch who worked on Carney’s campaign. Apparently, during a 2025 event, a woman heckled the PM with “Lead us, Big Daddy!” He was flustered. Maybe a little flattered.
The term became internal shorthand for Carney’s specific flavour of cheeky, charming competence. Business Carney, but also the alter ego who pocketed a beer at the St. Patrick’s Day parade and bragged about his Spotify age.
Kyla’s point is that Davos was Big Daddy Carns energy: serious but fundamentally human. The speech showed Canadians who they elected.
Whether that holds through whatever comes next — tariffs, trade wars, more tantrums — remains to be seen. But for one week at least, Canada’s prime minister looked like the grown-up in the room.
That’s not nothing.
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