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# The War Didn't Start on February 28
- URL: https://www.craftpolitics.fm/episodes/the-war-didnt-start-on-february-28/
- Published: 2026-03-10T18:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-09T12:36:34.000Z
- Author: Joseph Lavoie
- Tags: #scan, #episode, #no-guest, #ai-5

The war in Iran is 11 days old and the picture is shifting fast. A new supreme leader, an oil blockade threat, and Trump calling the whole thing a "little excursion" — We unpack why the conversation about international law feels so one-sided.

Plus: the EU quietly drops a protectionist bombshell that nobody seems to want to call by its name, and Carney's Indo-Pacific tour delivers billions in announcements but can any of it replace what's at stake with the US?

We close with the latest Canadian polling — and why the Liberals might regret winning back their majority.

Key Takeaways

- The Iran war didn't start on February 28\. The regime has been at war with its own people — and with the West — for 47 years. Treating the US-Israeli strikes as Day 1 skips a step.
- International law is being selectively invoked. Nobody marched when Hamas crossed a sovereign border. Nobody marched when the regime massacred tens of thousands of its own citizens in January. The outrage only shows up when the West acts.
- The opposition from the right (isolationism, cost) is different from the opposition on the left (the regime as victim). Both are wrong, but for very different reasons.
- Carney's initial statement was the right call — clear, decisive, among the most hawkish of any world leader. His walkback was driven by caucus management, not conviction.
- Starmer's response was embarrassing. A mix of lawyerly caution, Iraq hangover, and pandering to sectarian politics after a by-election loss to the Greens. It damaged the special relationship at exactly the wrong moment.
- The EU's Industrial Accelerator Act is tariffs by another name. Macron called Trump's tariffs destructive. Now the EU is doing the same thing and calling it resilience. Everyone's a hypocrite on trade.
- Carney's Indo-Pacific tour was impressive in presentation and announceables. But none of it replaces the US trade relationship — it's points of a percent versus multiple points of GDP.
- The Liberal lead over the Conservatives has grown to 14 points. Poilievre's tone is evolving, but he's fighting a caricature that won't shift overnight — especially with Trump in the White House as a contrast.

00:00 Welcome back  
00:30 Iran: new supreme leader, oil weaponised, Trump's mixed signals  
02:57 Andrew on the regime's 47-year war and the hypocrisy of international law  
04:48 Nobody invoked international law on October 7  
06:07 Right-wing isolationism vs. left-wing moral inversion  
07:41 The regime as imperialist — anti-imperialists supporting imperialism  
08:00 Andrew on the hierarchy of evil and the hard left's blind spots  
11:33 The domestic threat: IRGC activity in Canada, FBI warnings  
13:01 Regime change vs. containment — what's the realistic outcome?  
15:40 Can the Iranian people actually overthrow the regime?  
17:23 Intelligence infiltration and psychological damage to the regime  
18:07 Carney's flip-flop and Starmer's embarrassing response  
19:04 Andrew on Starmer: Iraq hangover, sectarian politics, and the special relationship  
24:29 Was Carney's walkback driven by Liberal caucus pressure?  
25:21 Andrew's rant: we can't bring ourselves to say taking out this regime is a good thing  
27:30 Story 2: The EU's "Made in Europe" Act — protectionism dressed up as policy  
30:25 Andrew: everyone's a hypocrite on trade  
33:13 Why anti-Trump framing lets the EU get away with it  
34:17 Should the UK try to get in on Made in Europe?  
35:44 Story 3: Carney's Indo-Pacific tour — India, Australia, Japan  
37:13 Andrew: great announceables, but it doesn't replace the US  
39:37 The real test is what happens with trade south  
40:24 Chart of the week: Liberals lead Conservatives by 14 points  
43:03 Poilievre's evolving tone — is it too late?  
45:29 Andrew: Canadians want a contrast to Trump, not a copy  
46:50 The NDP leadership race nobody's watching  
47:55 Wrap