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# Elections and Secret Chats | Issues Scan
- URL: https://www.craftpolitics.fm/episodes/canadian-elections-top-secret-chats-uk-local-elections/
- Published: 2025-03-26T18:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-07T15:18:23.000Z
- Author: Joseph Lavoie
- Tags: #episode, #no-guest, #ai-5, #scan

Three days into the Canadian election, the polling numbers are moving so fast that nobody's quite sure what's settled and what's still in play. Meanwhile, in the UK, local elections are about to deliver a verdict on both major parties, and neither one looks ready for it.

This week on Craft Politics, Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy break down the opening days of Canada's federal campaign, ask whether the Conservative brand recovery has stalled before it started, and unpack why Reform UK is about to win councils that have never elected them before.

We discuss:

**The reversal that won't stop.** Liberals up 23 points in Metro Vancouver since December. The NDP vote has halved. Conservatives holding steady but watching seat projections collapse. Joseph's theory: Conservatives do better when the race is competitive, not when they're miles ahead.

**Who's the attack dog now?** Pierre Poilievre built his brand as the guy who goes after the government. Now he needs to look prime ministerial. But nobody's stepped up to take over the attack role, and that's a problem.

**The NDP's existential crisis.** Branded with the Liberals for two years, hemorrhaging votes to Carney's broad coalition, and struggling to explain why progressives shouldn't just vote Liberal. What's the pitch when you're polling for a minority partner role?

**UK local elections: a reckoning for both sides.** Conservatives took 46% in these seats in 2021\. They're now polling 26%. Labour's not recovering either. Reform UK is predicted to win nearly 500 councillors and take control of councils from both major parties.

**Why losing councillors kills your base.** Andrew explains how local government wins build the activist infrastructure you need to win parliamentary seats, and why a wipeout in May makes the next general election harder to fight.

**Signal, Yemen, and amateur hour.** The Trump administration discussed a military operation on a third party messaging app, accidentally included a journalist, and Republicans who would have called for impeachment under Biden are saying nothing. Plus: J.D. Vance's contempt for Europe, explained.

Also discussed: why Carney's team is doing an exceptional job of presenting him as prime minister in waiting, whether the system has decided he's the guy, the Global News foreign interference story that dropped mid campaign, and Joseph's first trail run on the Sunshine Coast (in the rain, obviously).

00:00 Welcome and craft beer banter — British ales and vacation tales  
01:57 Election called — Canada's political earthquake begins  
02:38 The 23-point surge — Liberal momentum in Metro Vancouver  
04:22 Seat projections and the super-majority that vanished  
05:10 Do campaigns matter? The competitive race theory  
08:28 The Trump frame — Why Carney's winning the narrative  
14:26 The attack dog problem — Poilievre needs a new role  
16:29 The stability flip — From chaos agent to steady hand  
17:17 Are you better off? — The conservative counter-frame  
19:22 The NDP collapse — What went wrong and what's next  
20:23 Carney's center-right turn — Stealing Poilievre's playbook  
25:37 Signal scandal — Trump's top-secret Yemen chat disaster  
28:06 Vance's Europe hatred — Why would we help them?  
30:46 UK local elections — Reform's breakthrough moment  
31:51 The Conservative wipeout — From 46% to 26% in three years  
37:02 Reform takes Doncaster and Kent — The two-front assault  
38:06 Why local elections matter — Killing the activist base  
39:18 Tasting notes and James Moore preview